Models Predict COVID-19 Cases Continue Decline In Oregon

Photo: Brad Newgard

The Oregon Health Authority released its latest COVID-19 forecast showing a continued decline in daily cases and hospitalizations through early November.

According to the report, the effective reproduction rate – the expected number of secondary cases that a single case generates – was estimated at .90 on Oct. 6, which is slightly lower than last week’s projection.

At that level of transmission, the report estimates 255 cases per 100,000 people, or an average of 770 daily cases and 45 hospitalizations for the two-week period between Oct. 27 and Nov. 9.

The report also estimated the potential impact from the projected spread of the disease from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, which had a reproductive rate that averaged .82.

At that rate of transmission, new daily cases and hospitalizations are expected to decline more steeply, with an estimated average of 185 per100,000 people, projecting an average of 555 new cases and 31 hospitalizations over the same period.

The report also identified a “significant contrast” in adherence to the recommended public health protocols between unvaccinated and vaccinated persons.

Mask wearing among unvaccinated people is about half the rate of vaccinated people. Unvaccinated people are also more likely to attend large events outdoors.

Vaccinations and booster doses remain the most effective shield against COVID-19. Oregonians should wear masks when in indoor public spaces and when outdoors among crowds.

To date more than 2.79 million Oregonians have received at least one dose of the safe and highly effective vaccine and 2.58 million people have completed a vaccine series.

Source: Oregon Health Authority

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