COVID-19 has claimed three more lives in Oregon, bringing the state’s death toll to 563.
Oregon Health Authority reported 314 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19, bringing the state total to 34,163.
The new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases reported today are in the following counties: Baker (1), Benton (8), Clackamas (15), Clatsop (3), Columbia (1), Coos (2), Deschutes (4), Douglas (3), Hood River (1), Jackson (13), Jefferson (1), Josephine (8), Klamath (4), Lane (39), Lincoln (1), Linn (6), Malheur (12), Marion (37), Morrow (1), Multnomah (59), Polk (5), Umatilla (12), Wasco (2), Washington (66) and Yamhill (10).
- Orgon’s 561st COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old woman from Wasco County who tested positive on Sept. 16 and died on Sept. 28 in her residence. She had underlying conditions.
- Oregon’s 562nd COVID-19 death is an 83-year-old man in Lane County who tested positive on Aug. 27 and died on Sept. 30 in his residence. He had underlying conditions.
- Oregon’s 563rd COVID-19 death is an 84-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on Sept. 21 and died on Sept. 30 at Salem Hospital. He had underlying conditions.
The model offers three scenarios, assuming 4,500 tests per day for each.
The optimistic scenario assumes a 5-percentage-point increase on Sept. 5, but attributes increases in diagnosed cases after Sept. 15 to a decline in testing.
• Under this scenario by Oct. 22, new infections would increase from 680 to 800, resulting in about 270 daily cases. Severe cases – those requiring hospitalization – would increase to 24, and a reproduction rate would be 1.04, meaning that someone with the virus is passing it to more than one person.
The pessimistic scenario assumes a 10-percentage-point increase in transmission after Sept. 5 and attributes some of higher cases to be the result of increased transmission rather than a lack of testing.
• Under this scenario, by Oct. 22, there would be approximately 900 new infections and about 300 new daily cases, with eight more severe cases and a reproduction rate of 1.17.
The moderate scenario assumes a 7-percentage-point increase from Sept. 5, attributing fewer of the increased diagnosed cases to increased transmission.
• Under this scenario, by Oct. 22, new daily cases would increase by 120, with one additional severe case and a reproduction rate of 1.12. Based on COVID-19 data through Sept. 24 the model is consistent with increases in transmission throughout May, followed by decreases in transmission through late July and declining cases in August.
As has been shown since the beginning of the pandemic in Oregon, these trends remain very sensitive to small changes in transmission levels.
Model results should be interpreted with caution, given these recent reductions in testing and uncertainty behind various COVID-19 model assumptions.