OHA released its latest modeling report today showing that the current rate of transmission has fallen to a point where each case is generating less than one other case. For this reason, daily case numbers are dropping.
“This is tremendous progress, but it will only continue if we keep up the pressure,” said Dean Sidelinger, MD, state health officer and state epidemiologist. “We cannot ease up and allow Labor Day social gatherings to send our rate back up. This virus remains extremely contagious and spreads very quickly. It would not take much for cases to rise again.”
The model looked at the following scenarios:
• If the transmission rate continues as it is today, then by Sept. 24, the new daily cases would drop to 410 from today’s 560, resulting in diagnosis of about approximately 150 of those cases. There would be six severe cases per day and the reproduction rate is 0.9 in this scenario, indicating that each case generates 0.9 others on average.
• If the rate of transmission were to drop by 5 percent, by Sept. 24, the model estimates 240 daily cases with diagnosis of roughly 90 of them and five severe cases per day. In this scenario the reproduction rate would be slightly lower at 0.77.
• If the transmission rate were to rise by 5 percent from current levels, then by Sept. 24, each case would generate 1.05 new cases, and daily cases would rise to 790, with 180 diagnosed per day. Severe cases would rise to 11 per day.
“The takeaway from our modeling this week is very clear: We’ve made great progress through hard work and sacrifice, but those gains are tenuous,” added Dr. Sidelinger. “It’s on every one of us to maintain the progress we’ve made against COVID-19, and together we can do it.”
COVID-19 has claimed five more lives in Oregon, increasing the state’s death toll to 475, the Oregon Health Authority reported on Friday.
Oregon Health Authority reported 268 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 bringing the state total to 27,601.
The new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases reported today are in the following counties: Benton (4), Clackamas (18), Clatsop (1), Coos (1), Crook (2), Curry (1), Deschutes (2), Hood River (2), Jackson (12), Jefferson (1), Josephine (6), Lake (2), Lane (22), Linn (5), Malheur (31), Marion (44), Morrow (6), Multnomah (43), Polk (3), Tillamook (2), Umatilla (32), Union (1), Wasco (2), Washington (23), and Yamhill (2).
Oregon’s 471st COVID-19 death is a 43-year-old man in Clackamas County who tested positive on Aug. 12 and died on Aug. 26, at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 472nd COVID-19 death is a 52-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 25 and died on Sept. 2, at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 473rd COVID-19 death is a 73-year-old man in Multnomah County who tested positive on Aug. 13 and died on Sept. 1, at Legacy Good Samaritan Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 474th COVID-19 death is a 56-year-old woman in Washington County who tested positive on July 15 and died on Sept. 3 at OHSU. She had underlying medical conditions.
Oregon’s 475th COVID-19 death is an 87-year-old woman in Multnomah County who tested positive on April 16 and died on July 18 in her residence. She had underlying conditions. The death certificate listed COVID-19 disease or SARS-CoV-2 as a cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death.
Source: Oregon Health Authority