Drivers in most states, including Oregon, are seeing small to moderate changes in gas prices again this week. Tepid demand in the U.S. and easing crude oil prices are helping to keep pump prices relatively steady for now. But the typical seasonal increases will kick in soon. For the week, the national average for regular slips a penny to $3.11 a gallon. The Oregon average adds three cents to $3.58 a gallon.

Crude oil prices and the markets have been volatile, in part due to the threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. For now, the Trump administration has put tariffs on a 30-day hold. The price of crude oil is back down in the low-to-mid $70 range, after soaring to $80 per barrel on January 15, the highest price since last August.

In California, the Martinez Refining Co. refinery in the Bay Area is offline after an explosion and fire. This is putting some upward pressure on prices in the region.

“Gas prices will likely continue to waffle. This is often a time of relatively low pump prices, until the typical seasonal increases begin due to refinery maintenance and the switch to summer-blend fuel,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho.

The Oregon average began 2025 at $3.45 a gallon and is currently at $3.58. The average price of regular gas in Oregon in 2024 was $3.88, compared to $4.23 in 2023. The Oregon average began 2024 at $3.79 a gallon and ended the year at $3.45. The lowest price in 2024 was just under $3.45 a gallon on December 30 and the highest price of the year was nearly $4.51 on May 1.

The national average began 2025 at $3.06 a gallon and is currently at $3.11. The average price of gas nationwide in 2024 was $3.33, compared to $3.53 in 2023. The national average started 2024 at $3.11 and ended the year at $3.04. The lowest price in 2024 was $3.01 on December 10, and the highest was just under $3.68 on April 19.

Gas prices typically rise starting in mid-to-late winter and early spring as refineries undergo maintenance ahead of the switch to summer-blend fuel. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to switch to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover in February.

Gas prices usually drop in the fall, due to the switch from summer-blend to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to produce. The switch starts in September. Many areas, including Oregon, can sell winter-blend fuel starting September 15. However, Northern and Southern California require summer-blend fuel through October 31. Prices usually decline to their lowest levels of the year in late fall and early winter before increasing again in the late winter and early spring.

Meanwhile, crude oil production in the U.S. remains near record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that crude production in this country slipped from 13.48 to 13.24 million barrels per day for the week ending January 24. The record high is 13.63 million barrels per day for the week of December 6. Production has been at 13.5 million barrels per day many times since October. The U.S. has been the top producer of crude oil in the world since 2018 and has been increasing its oil production since about 2009.

The U.S. price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) soared to $80.04 per barrel on January 15, which is the highest price since last August. Crude had been between about $67 and $74 per barrel from mid-October until January 10 when WTI closed above $76 per barrel.

Crude oil is trading around $73 today compared to $74 a week ago and $73 a year ago. In 2024, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $66 and $87 per barrel. In 2023, WTI ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. WTI reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.

Crude prices are impacted by economic news as well as geopolitical events around the world including the unrest in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a top global oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ have tightened global crude oil supplies, which will continue to impact prices.

Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 56% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 8% is refining, 20% distribution and marketing, and 17% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Demand for gasoline in the U.S. increased from 8.08 million b/d to 8.30 million b/d for the week ending January 24, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 8.14 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline rose from 245.9 million barrels to 248.9, while gasoline production ticked down last week, averaging 9.19 million barrels daily compared to 9.24 million barrels daily the previous week.

Pump prices may continue to show little movement in the short term, if crude oil prices don’t increase again.

Quick stats

Oregon is one of 23 states with higher prices now than a week ago, but all of the increases are small to moderate. Arizona (+10 cents) has the largest week-over-week increase in the nation. Ohio (-14 cents) has the biggest week-over-week decrease.

Hawaii ($4.55) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the 14th week in a row. California ($4.48) is second. These are the only two states in the country with averages still at or above $4 a gallon. This week 23 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There are 25 states with an average in the $2 range this week.

The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($2.68) and Oklahoma ($2.70). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold. At the time, the COVID-19 pandemic drove significant declines in crude oil and gasoline demand in the U.S. and around the world.

The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $1.87 this week, compared to $1.86 a week ago.

Oregon is one of 45 states and the District of Columbia with higher prices now than a month ago. The national average is four cents more and the Oregon average is 12 cents more than a month ago. Montana (+23 cents) has the largest month-over-month increase. Ohio (-30 cents) has the largest month-over-month drop in the nation.

Oregon is one of 30 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is four cents less and the Oregon average is three cents less than a year ago. Ohio (-18 cents) has the largest yearly drop. Utah (+31 cents) has the largest year-over-year increase.

West Coast

The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with all seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.

Diesel

For the week, the national average slips one cent to $3.66 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average adds about half a cent to $3.84. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.94 and the Oregon average was $4.14.

Source: AAA

Mark Mason