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American University historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted the result of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, claimed that his formula is currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, though he hasn't yet made a final prediction for the 2024 election, FOX News reports.
The Democrats, with Harris as the presumptive nominee following President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign, currently hold six of Lichtman's 13 'Keys to the White House,' which are true-or-false questions that he believes give a strong indication of who will be the winner of an upcoming election. A candidate is given a "key" if "true," while their competitor receives a point if the answer is "false."
Lichtman's "keys" are included below:
- Party mandate
- Contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military failure
- Foreign/military success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Lichtman scored Democrats as holding six keys in primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal and no challenger charisma. Republicans were given three keys for winning the House majority in the 2022 mid-term election, current incumbent not seeking re-election and current incumbent lacking charisma.
Licthman still has several keys that have yet to be decided including the "third-party" factor, which is notable given Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s involvement in the presidential race, as well as having "no social unrest" and "foreign military failure" and "foreign military success."
Licthman's formula has accurately predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984, with the exception being the 2000 election, where it forecasted a victory for then-Vice President Al Gore over eventual President George W. Bush.