The Oregon Health Authority updated its bi-weekly modeling report today, showing various trajectories for COVID-19.
The modeling presents three scenarios:
• If the current transmission rate continues, new daily infections would rise steadily over the next four weeks to around 1,600 infections a day by Aug. 13, with 27 hospitalizations.
• If transmission decreased by 10 percentage points from current rates, the estimated number of new infections would decrease over time to 600 infections a day by Aug. 13 with 17 hospitalizations.
• Finally, a pessimistic scenario, in which transmission increases by 10 percentage points from the current rates, shows 2,300 new daily infections by Aug. 13 with 46 hospitalizations.
The projections show the need for Oregonians to continue to wear face coverings, stay six feet apart and limit the size of social gatherings to bend the curve again. These actions, along with the recent measures put in place by Gov. Kate Brown, will make a difference in the course of COVID-19 in our state.
COVID-19 has claimed two more lives in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 273.
Oregon Health Authority reported 331 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 bringing the state total to 15,713.
The new cases are in the following counties: Clackamas (18), Columbia (3), Coos (3), Crook (1), Deschutes (18), Douglas (13), Hood River (1), Jackson (8), Jefferson (3), Josephine (3), Klamath (13), Lake (1), Lane (12), Lincoln (5), Linn (3), Malheur (10), Marion (39), Morrow (4), Multnomah (77), Polk (13), Tillamook (1), Umatilla (39), Wasco (6), Washington (33), and Yamhill (4).
Oregon’s 272nd COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old man in Umatilla County who tested positive on June 29 and died on July 16, at Good Shepherd Health Care System. He had underlying conditions.
Oregon’s 273rd COVID-19 death is a 79-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on July 8 and died on July 21, at Salem Hospital. She had underlying conditions.