The Oregon average for regular gas drops below $4 a gallon for the first time since March 14. Pump prices are barely budging with almost all states seeing small gains or declines on the week. Driving this lull are sluggish demand for gas in the U.S. and crude oil prices that are stuck around $80 per barrel. For the week, the national average for regular slips half a cent to $3.52. The Oregon average ticks down three cents to $3.997 a gallon.
“Gas prices will likely continue to see small fluctuations in the short-term, barring unforeseen events. Forecasters continue to predict an active hurricane season, and there’s the potential for surges in pump prices if a storm impacts drilling, refining and distribution in the Gulf Coast,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho. “Hurricane Beryl caused limited damage to energy facilities in the Gulf Coast so did not have a major impact on pump prices. However, thousands of people remain without power in Texas, and power outages mean gas stations are not able to operate unless they have backup generators.”
The national and Oregon averages are at the same prices as they were in March. This week, 20 Oregon counties have averages below $4 per gallon, compared to 16 counties a week ago:
- Baker $3.81
- Benton $3.68
- Crook $3.95
- Deschutes $3.81
- Douglas $3.86
- Gilliam $3.90
- Hood River $3.97
- Jefferson $3.80
- Klamath $3.98
- Lane $3.81
- Linn $3.72
- Lincoln $3.77
- Malheur $3.89
- Marion $3.92
- Morrow $3.85
- Polk $3.90
- Sherman $3.89
- Umatilla $3.84
- Yamhill $3.92
- Wasco $3.94
The Oregon average began 2024 at $3.79 a gallon compared to $3.997 today. Its lowest price so far this year is $3.58 on February 14 and the highest is nearly $4.51 on May 1. The national average started the year at $3.11 and is at $3.52 today. Its lowest price so far this year is just under $3.07 on January 15 and the highest is just under $3.68 on April 19.
Gas prices are often fairly steady during the summer months, barring hurricanes, supply disruptions and/or geo-political events. Gas prices always rise starting in late winter through the spring as refineries undergo maintenance as the switch to summer-blend fuel occurs. The switch occurs first in California, which is why pump prices on the West Coast often rise before other parts of the country. The East Coast is the last major market to make the change to summer-blend fuel. Most areas have a May 1 compliance date for refiners and terminals, while most gas stations have a June 1 deadline to switch to selling summer-blend until June 1. Switch-over dates are earlier in California with some areas in the state requiring summer-blend fuel by April 1. Some refineries will begin maintenance and the switchover as early as February.
Crude oil prices remain around $80 per barrel. Crude prices are impacted by geopolitical events around the world including the war between Israel and Hamas, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea. In addition, production cuts by OPEC+ have tightened global crude oil supplies, which will continue to impact prices. And we’re in hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
The price of crude oil reached the year-to-date high of nearly $87 per barrel on April 5. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $80 on March 14 and above $85 on April 2, then dipped below $85 starting on April 17 and below $80 again on May 1. WTI rose above $80 per barrel again on June 17 and has remained above $80 since then. Major drivers of elevated crude prices are the unrest in the Middle East, the decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production cuts in place, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Russia is a top global oil producer and the refinery attacks have reduced output.
Crude prices have been volatile after the attack on Israel by Hamas last October. While Israel and the Palestinian territory are not oil producers, concerns remain that the conflict could spread in the Middle East, which could potentially impact crude production in other oil-producing nations in the region.
Crude oil is trading around $80 today compared to $82 a week ago and $74 a year ago. In 2023, West Texas Intermediate ranged between $63 and $95 per barrel. Crude reached recent highs of $123.70 on March 8, 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and $122.11 per barrel on June 8, 2022. The all-time high for WTI crude oil is $147.27 in July 2008.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in gasoline and diesel, so pump prices are impacted by crude prices on the global markets. On average, about 54% of what we pay for in a gallon of gasoline is for the price of crude oil, 15% is refining, 18% distribution and marketing, and 14% are taxes, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Demand for gasoline in the U.S. dipped from 9.42 million b/d to 9.40 million b/d for the week ending July 5, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This compares to 8.76 million b/d a year ago. Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline stocks fell from 231.7 to 229.7 million barrels, while gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels daily.
Tepid gasoline demand and waffling oil costs may lead to some short-term stability in pump prices.
Quick stats
Oregon is one of 27 states and the District of Columbia with lower prices now than a week ago. Colorado (-11 cents) has the largest week-over-week drop in the nation. Missouri (+7 cents) has the largest weekly increase. The averages in Iowa and Florida are flat.
California ($4.75) has the most expensive gas in the nation for the 20th week in a row. This is the sixth week in a row that the California average has been below $5 per gallon. Hawaii ($4.69) is second, Washington ($4.28) is third, and Nevada ($4.01) is fourth. These are the four states with averages at or above $4 a gallon, down from five states a week ago when Oregon still had an average above $4. This week 46 states and the District of Columbia have averages in the $3-range. There are no states with averages in the $2 range this week.
The cheapest gas in the nation is in Mississippi ($3.00) and Arkansas ($3.09). No state has had an average below $2 a gallon since January 7, 2021, when Mississippi and Texas were below that threshold.
The difference between the most expensive and least expensive states is $1.74 this week, compared to $1.79 a week ago.
Oregon is one of 11 states with lower prices now than a month ago. The national average is seven cents more and the Oregon average is 10 cents less than a month ago. This is the fourth-largest month-over-month decline in the nation. Florida (+23 cents) has the largest monthly gain in the nation. Arizona (-14 cents) has the largest month-over-month decrease.
Oregon is one of 33 states with lower prices now than a year ago. The national average is five cents less and the Oregon average is 61 cents less than a year ago. This is the second-largest year-over-year drop in the nation. Washington (-66 cents) has the largest yearly decrease. Georgia (+11 cents) has the largest year-over-year increase.
West Coast
The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation with six of the seven states in the top 10. It’s typical for the West Coast to have six or seven states in the top 10 as this region tends to consistently have fairly tight supplies, consuming about as much gasoline as is produced. In addition, this region is located relatively far from parts of the country where oil drilling, production and refining occurs, so transportation costs are higher. And environmental programs in this region add to the cost of production, storage and distribution.
Diesel
For the week, the national average dips one cent to $3.86 a gallon. The record high is $5.816 set on June 19, 2022. The Oregon average also slips one cent to $4.09. The record high is $6.47 set on July 3, 2022. A year ago the national average for diesel was $3.85 and the Oregon average was $4.42.
Source: AAA